Posted Jan 16, 2020 - 07:58 AM:
Subject: What We Do And How To Join
The Mathematician-Betting forums are private forums for full (paying) members of the Mathematician-Betting.co.uk service.
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Below is a copy of an historic message as a typical sample of what members receive in their email from us each betting day. As you can see research effort and reasoning is expansive and far beyong a simple name of horse only tip.
Realistically There is only 1 proper preview The other 4 races hardly intense No more than summarised ideas
Today's Best Bet
Punchestown 2.50
£4 Each Way CEDAR HILL 12/1-14/1
£1 Win Bet JOHNNY SUE 7/1
£1 Win Bet BARNA VENTURE 9/1
This is speculative More likely than not we will lose
What I like about the race Nobody has a clue what wins Nobody will have done as much work
Try to get 5 places
Cedar Hill 5 places
14/1 Skybet VC PPower Betway 10/1 Corals
But 12/1 is fine each way Even if you only get 4 places
I like the bet But under no illusions
This is a return to action bet In a race few will have looked at
Monday's Summary
Little on offer for us yesterday Ended up with just 4 previews Broke level in 3 of those races Including the days best option Lord Du Mesnil won as a saver Just a boring non combative day
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Lingfield 12.00
9/4 Roundabout Magic, 4/1 Man Of The Sea 6/1 Oh So Nice, Terri Rules, 8/1 Fareeq, 9/1 Waneen 10/1 Superseded, 14/1 Starchant, 20/1 Ask The Guru 25/1 Pharoh Jake.
5f Handicap
MAN OF THE SEA is a 3yo He has 127 days absence Taking on older horses
5f Handicaps Open to all aged horses Class 6 races Any time of year Both sand and grass
Horses aged 3 Over 9 previous runs Absent more than 71 days Return a 0-70 record in them MAN OF THE SEA fails this 0-70 angle
Given none have done this With a similar profile any time of year Feel we have to oppose him in this Race still requires luck and a guess Decided to stay with older horses
Selection
£7 Win Bet FAREEQ 7/1-8/1
£3 Win Bet ROUNDABOUT MAGIC 9/4-5/2
Uttoxeter 12.15
9/2 Richardofdoccombe, 11/2 All Good Things 6/1 Flanagans Field 7/1 Highland Bobby, 15/2 Tennewrow 8/1 Ted Bach 10/1 Alltimegold, Anywayyoulookatit, 14/1 Collodi 16/1 Dubai Outlaw 20/1 Kilcaragh Boy, 20/1 Ulysses 25/1 Man Of The North, 66/1 Just Spot.
2m Handicap Hurdle
Strange to see a 13yo favourite Following the angles of this race All past winners had this profile
Aged 5-6-7 10st 10lbs and more Running within 62 days Coming from 2m 4f or less Horses with this profile Have a 8-33 record in 8 renewals There are 3 with this profile
ALL GOOD THINGS 7/1 TENNEWROW 7/1 ALLTIMEGOLD 10/1
ALL GOOD THINGS May have gone off too fast last time Going to cover all 3 options
Selection
£7.50 Win Bet ALL GOOD THINGS 6/1
£1.50 Win Bet TENNEWROW 7/1-8/1
£1.00 Win Bet ALLTIMEGOLD 10/1
Punchestown 1.10
5/4 Pasley, 7/1 Top Line Tommy, 8/1 Cape Islay 10/1 Gealach, Millford Sound, Oak Park, 12/1 Darkened 12/1 Yafordadoe, 14/1 Three Comets, 20/1 Oliver Hardy 25/1 Early Voice, 33/1 Annie Pender, Garrison Commander 33/1 Metal Man, Patience Patience, Weather Alert, 50/1 Jess's Corner, Lightsider, 66/1 Sevenaday 66/1 Wicklow Gale.
3yo Hurdle
PASLEY has the numbers He has the connections too Should be able to take this Possible each way double bet
Selection
PASLEY 11/10
Win Bet
Uttoxeter 12.45
6/5 Accordingtogino, 9/4 Golden Sovereign 5/1 Apple Rock, 6/1 Lies About Milan, 20/1 Bonanza Sam 25/1 A Book Of Intrigue, Little Saint, 66/1 Getaman 66/1 Robsam, 100/1 April Rising, My Foxy Lady.
2m 7f Maiden Hurdle The market suggests 4 horses Should provide the winner
LIES ABOUT MILAN an unraced 8yo APPLE ROCK an unraced 5yo Clearly have plenty to prove here Against 2 experienced hurdlers
If I was having a bet Golden Sovereign each way one option The split stake option also appeals
£10 Stakes Betfair prices
£4 Accordingtogino around 11/8-6/4 £6 Golden Sovereign around 11/4-5/2 Seems one of the sensible options
Golden Sovereign becomes about 11/10 Cash back if the favourite wins Only 2 unraced horses or the rags Can cost you any money in the race
Punchestown 2.50
5/1 Knockanora Lady, 6/1 Rebel Waltz, 8/1 Bread And Butter 8/1 Johnny Sue, Pretty Little Liar, 10/1 Barna Venture 12/1 Hughies Bay, 12/1 Vinabell, 14/1 De Bennette, 14/1 Glenquin Castle, Major Fawcett, 20/1 Cedar Hill, 20/1 Dubheen, Kinnagoe Boy, 25/1 Papal Present, 25/1 Shes Gold, 33/1 Arizona Flyer, Lady Of The Rea 50/1 Balaclava, 50/1 Elusive Intrusive.
2m Handicap Hurdle
10 Past renewals
All 10 went to horses With a similar pattern to each other
They were all aged 5 or 6
Horses aged 4 are 0-22 Horses aged 7 or more 0-58
You want a 5yo-6yo With 5-17 career starts With 5-14 hurdle starts Running within 56 days
Past winners Had the following career runs 5 8 14 9 9 8 15 17 8 10
Past winners Had the following hurdle runs 5 7 11 6 6 7 14 10 6 10
Past winners Had the following runs since August 1 7 4 5 1 3 7 7 3 4
Horses aged 4 are 0-22 ARIZONA FLYER is a 4 year old Rejected with several months absence BREAD AND BUTTER is a 4yo He only has 3 lifetime starts All past winners had at least 2 more
Punchestown Handicap Hurdles Any distance Any time of year Horses Aged 4 Under 9 lifetime starts Have a 0-88 record in them ARIZONA FLYER fails this BREAD AND BUTTER fails this
ELUSIVE INTRUSIVE is a 4yo filly SHE'S GOLD another 4yo filly Neither horse offers encouragement REBEL WALTZ has 5 career runs But only 3 of those over hurdles Past winners had these hurdle runs 5 7 11 6 6 7 14 10 6 10 Likely to be well treated in time But not the type that has wont this GLENQUIN CASTLE is inexperienced Just 3 lifetime runs all over hurdles Not the type that has won this race
Not just opposing the inexperienced I am against the exposed horses too
Horses with over 17 runs are 0-28 Horses with over 14 hurdle runs 0-13
HUGHIES BAY is too exposed aged 9 Well beaten only 2 days ago as well PRETTY LITTLE LIAR has 28 career runs She is a mare with 1 run in 178 days KINNAGOE BOY is too exposed 19 runs 16 hurdles never placed in any BALACLAVA is getting exposed Very unlikely winner with few positives
DE BENNETTE is a 10yo mare Absent longer than all past winners LADY OR THE REA is unexposed But an 8yo mare absent 599 days She looks far too risky to trust
MAJOR FAWCETT has 154 days off Thats 3 months more than all past winners
November + December Punchestown Handicap Hurdles Any distance Any class Horses under 7 years old Over 6 career starts Absent more than 69 days Have a 0-51 record in them MAJOR FAWCETT shares this profile
PAPAL PRESENT is out of form From a stable also out of form as well Looks to need further than this His best form some time ago over further
DUBHEEN has 5 runs all over hurdles Last years winner had a similar profile He was a year older and more convincing Looks a bit deliberate at his hurdling Just felt he needed more experience
VINABELL is a 5yo mare I like her profile 10 runs 9 over hurdles Would have liked more this season Clearly needed her first run this year But coming out just 15 days later I would worry she is on the bounce
KNOCKANORA LADY is a mare She pulled up only 5 days ago That profile must be a serious worry Pick out the best of her runs Then she has a very good chance But 5 days ago she flopped badly That clearly undermines her chance
Shortlist
BARNA VENTURE is a 9 year old He is 3 years older than all past winners None were as exposed as he is either But he is well treated over hurdles One of the few genuinely fit this year And had excuses on his latest start
JOHNNY SUE is an 8 year old When every past winner was aged 5-6 But that is probably worth forgiving He is unexposed and had little racing Just 10 runs 8 over hurdles looks ideal One problem is the trainers career 21 Career wins but none since 2017 Another problem a drop from 2m 6f But 2010 winner dropped from 2m 7f JOHNNY SUE is sired by Alkaadhem Tells me he didn't stay 2m 6f last time Not the biggest horse nor bomb proof But clearly has the numbers to win this
CEDAR HILL only has 4 runs All past winners had 5 or more Well beaten on his handicap debut Looks like he needs another run But there are clear positives too He had some trouble in running He was heavily eased once beaten He ran in a significant trial race Where he was only a 10/1 chance He travelled really well for a long time
Selection
£4 Each Way CEDAR HILL 12/1-14/1
£2 Win Bet JOHNNY SUE 7/1
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Ballymore Hurdle Statistics
Another Cheltenham race today Trying to get these done quickly Today is the Ballymore Hurdle Never been a good trends race Unlikely to be one of my big races
Cheltenham Festival
Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
Race Statistics
Envoi Allen 7/4 Thyme Hill 9/1 Andy Dufresne 16/1 The Big Breakaway 16/1 Chantry House 16/1 Latest Exhibition 25/1 Elixir D'Ainay 25/1 Longhouse Poet 25/1 Fiddlerontheroof 33/1 McFabulous 50/1
Grade 1 Hurdle (2m 5f)
Horses aged 5-6 are best The last 6 winners were 6 year olds
Horses aged 7 or more Have a 0-62 record since 1999 Only won in 1974 and 1998
Recent winners Had the following lifetime runs 5 6 7 6 9 4 8 4 5 3 8 4 11 9 Only the 2010 winner had under 4 runs
Horses from a Listed or Graded race Have tended to win this race But the 2012 and 2019 winners didn't
Past winners Had the following lifetime runs 5 6 7 4 10 8 8 4 5 3 8
Past winners Had the following hurdle runs 3 3 3 2 3 7 4 3 4 2 7
Past winners Had the following runs that season 3 3 3 2 6 2 4 3 4 3 4
Horses from 2m races are fine If the horse has under 7 career runs They had 6 4 4 5 3 career runs They had 3 2 3 4 2 hurdle runs Those with more are 0-19 since 2009
Past winners Had the following days absence 32 38 60 74 31 74 46 28 77 53 38 29
Horses aged 5 Won 3 renewals since 2006 They had 8 3 8 career runs They had 4 2 7 hurdle runs They had 4 3 4 runs that year
Past winners Came from the following distances 19f 16f 21f 16f 18f 24f 20f 16f 16f 16f
Comments on What We Do And How To Join
Senior Member
Usergroup:
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Total Topics: 35
Total Comments: 205
Subject: What We Do And How To Join
The Mathematician-Betting forums are private forums for
full (paying) members of the Mathematician-Betting.co.uk service.
As a non member you will see next to nothing here unfortunately.
Inside however is a busy active forum where members discuss racing
and sports betting, providing both daily thoughts and advice
and long term betting strategy thinking.
It is a great place to ask questions and
to raise your general knowledge of betting.
The forums are a complimentary add on
for memebrs of our Private Service.
Read more about the Private Members Service here
Horse Racing Advice
To join our private service now under our No Quibble Refund Guarantee
click here ..
Below is a copy of an historic message as a typical sample
of what members receive in their email from us each betting day.
As you can see research effort and reasoning is expansive
and far beyong a simple name of horse only tip.
========================================================================
Mathematician 3418
Tuesday Dec 31st 2019
5 Previews
0 Account Bet
1 Highlighted Bet
Highlighted Bet
Punchestown 2.50
£4 Each Way CEDAR HILL 12/1-14/1
£1 Win Bet JOHNNY SUE 7/1
£1 Win Bet BARNA VENTURE 9/1
1/4 Odds 1-2-3-4
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5
Today's Message
New years day tomorrow
It is a Bank Holiday as well
Cheltenham has a full card
What I wanted to do today
Try to get back on a Bet footing
Return to one of the accounts
Loosen the arm up for tomorrow
5 Previews
Lingfield 12.00
Uttoxeter 12.15
Punchestown 1.10
Uttoxeter 12.45
Punchestown 2.50
Realistically
There is only 1 proper preview
The other 4 races hardly intense
No more than summarised ideas
Today's Best Bet
Punchestown 2.50
£4 Each Way CEDAR HILL 12/1-14/1
£1 Win Bet JOHNNY SUE 7/1
£1 Win Bet BARNA VENTURE 9/1
This is speculative
More likely than not we will lose
What I like about the race
Nobody has a clue what wins
Nobody will have done as much work
Try to get 5 places
Cedar Hill 5 places
14/1 Skybet VC PPower Betway
10/1 Corals
But 12/1 is fine each way
Even if you only get 4 places
I like the bet
But under no illusions
This is a return to action bet
In a race few will have looked at
Monday's Summary
Little on offer for us yesterday
Ended up with just 4 previews
Broke level in 3 of those races
Including the days best option
Lord Du Mesnil won as a saver
Just a boring non combative day
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Lingfield 12.00
9/4 Roundabout Magic, 4/1 Man Of The Sea
6/1 Oh So Nice, Terri Rules, 8/1 Fareeq, 9/1 Waneen
10/1 Superseded, 14/1 Starchant, 20/1 Ask The Guru
25/1 Pharoh Jake.
5f Handicap
MAN OF THE SEA is a 3yo
He has 127 days absence
Taking on older horses
5f Handicaps
Open to all aged horses
Class 6 races
Any time of year
Both sand and grass
Horses aged 3
Over 9 previous runs
Absent more than 71 days
Return a 0-70 record in them
MAN OF THE SEA fails this 0-70 angle
Given none have done this
With a similar profile any time of year
Feel we have to oppose him in this
Race still requires luck and a guess
Decided to stay with older horses
Selection
£7 Win Bet FAREEQ 7/1-8/1
£3 Win Bet ROUNDABOUT MAGIC 9/4-5/2
Uttoxeter 12.15
9/2 Richardofdoccombe, 11/2 All Good Things
6/1 Flanagans Field 7/1 Highland Bobby, 15/2 Tennewrow
8/1 Ted Bach 10/1 Alltimegold, Anywayyoulookatit, 14/1 Collodi
16/1 Dubai Outlaw 20/1 Kilcaragh Boy, 20/1 Ulysses
25/1 Man Of The North, 66/1 Just Spot.
2m Handicap Hurdle
Strange to see a 13yo favourite
Following the angles of this race
All past winners had this profile
Aged 5-6-7
10st 10lbs and more
Running within 62 days
Coming from 2m 4f or less
Horses with this profile
Have a 8-33 record in 8 renewals
There are 3 with this profile
ALL GOOD THINGS 7/1
TENNEWROW 7/1
ALLTIMEGOLD 10/1
ALL GOOD THINGS
May have gone off too fast last time
Going to cover all 3 options
Selection
£7.50 Win Bet ALL GOOD THINGS 6/1
£1.50 Win Bet TENNEWROW 7/1-8/1
£1.00 Win Bet ALLTIMEGOLD 10/1
Punchestown 1.10
5/4 Pasley, 7/1 Top Line Tommy, 8/1 Cape Islay
10/1 Gealach, Millford Sound, Oak Park, 12/1 Darkened
12/1 Yafordadoe, 14/1 Three Comets, 20/1 Oliver Hardy
25/1 Early Voice, 33/1 Annie Pender, Garrison Commander
33/1 Metal Man, Patience Patience, Weather Alert,
50/1 Jess's Corner, Lightsider, 66/1 Sevenaday
66/1 Wicklow Gale.
3yo Hurdle
PASLEY has the numbers
He has the connections too
Should be able to take this
Possible each way double bet
Selection
PASLEY 11/10
Win Bet
Uttoxeter 12.45
6/5 Accordingtogino, 9/4 Golden Sovereign
5/1 Apple Rock, 6/1 Lies About Milan, 20/1 Bonanza Sam
25/1 A Book Of Intrigue, Little Saint, 66/1 Getaman
66/1 Robsam, 100/1 April Rising, My Foxy Lady.
2m 7f Maiden Hurdle
The market suggests 4 horses
Should provide the winner
LIES ABOUT MILAN an unraced 8yo
APPLE ROCK an unraced 5yo
Clearly have plenty to prove here
Against 2 experienced hurdlers
If I was having a bet
Golden Sovereign each way one option
The split stake option also appeals
£10 Stakes
Betfair prices
£4 Accordingtogino around 11/8-6/4
£6 Golden Sovereign around 11/4-5/2
Seems one of the sensible options
Golden Sovereign becomes about 11/10
Cash back if the favourite wins
Only 2 unraced horses or the rags
Can cost you any money in the race
Punchestown 2.50
5/1 Knockanora Lady, 6/1 Rebel Waltz, 8/1 Bread And Butter
8/1 Johnny Sue, Pretty Little Liar, 10/1 Barna Venture
12/1 Hughies Bay, 12/1 Vinabell, 14/1 De Bennette,
14/1 Glenquin Castle, Major Fawcett, 20/1 Cedar Hill,
20/1 Dubheen, Kinnagoe Boy, 25/1 Papal Present,
25/1 Shes Gold, 33/1 Arizona Flyer, Lady Of The Rea
50/1 Balaclava, 50/1 Elusive Intrusive.
2m Handicap Hurdle
10 Past renewals
All 10 went to horses
With a similar pattern to each other
They were all aged 5 or 6
Horses aged 4 are 0-22
Horses aged 7 or more 0-58
You want a 5yo-6yo
With 5-17 career starts
With 5-14 hurdle starts
Running within 56 days
Past winners
Had the following career runs
5 8 14 9 9 8 15 17 8 10
Past winners
Had the following hurdle runs
5 7 11 6 6 7 14 10 6 10
Past winners
Had the following runs since August
1 7 4 5 1 3 7 7 3 4
Horses aged 4 are 0-22
ARIZONA FLYER is a 4 year old
Rejected with several months absence
BREAD AND BUTTER is a 4yo
He only has 3 lifetime starts
All past winners had at least 2 more
Punchestown
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any time of year
Horses Aged 4
Under 9 lifetime starts
Have a 0-88 record in them
ARIZONA FLYER fails this
BREAD AND BUTTER fails this
ELUSIVE INTRUSIVE is a 4yo filly
SHE'S GOLD another 4yo filly
Neither horse offers encouragement
REBEL WALTZ has 5 career runs
But only 3 of those over hurdles
Past winners had these hurdle runs
5 7 11 6 6 7 14 10 6 10
Likely to be well treated in time
But not the type that has wont this
GLENQUIN CASTLE is inexperienced
Just 3 lifetime runs all over hurdles
Not the type that has won this race
Not just opposing the inexperienced
I am against the exposed horses too
Horses with over 17 runs are 0-28
Horses with over 14 hurdle runs 0-13
HUGHIES BAY is too exposed aged 9
Well beaten only 2 days ago as well
PRETTY LITTLE LIAR has 28 career runs
She is a mare with 1 run in 178 days
KINNAGOE BOY is too exposed
19 runs 16 hurdles never placed in any
BALACLAVA is getting exposed
Very unlikely winner with few positives
DE BENNETTE is a 10yo mare
Absent longer than all past winners
LADY OR THE REA is unexposed
But an 8yo mare absent 599 days
She looks far too risky to trust
MAJOR FAWCETT has 154 days off
Thats 3 months more than all past winners
November + December
Punchestown Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Horses under 7 years old
Over 6 career starts
Absent more than 69 days
Have a 0-51 record in them
MAJOR FAWCETT shares this profile
PAPAL PRESENT is out of form
From a stable also out of form as well
Looks to need further than this
His best form some time ago over further
DUBHEEN has 5 runs all over hurdles
Last years winner had a similar profile
He was a year older and more convincing
Looks a bit deliberate at his hurdling
Just felt he needed more experience
VINABELL is a 5yo mare
I like her profile 10 runs 9 over hurdles
Would have liked more this season
Clearly needed her first run this year
But coming out just 15 days later
I would worry she is on the bounce
KNOCKANORA LADY is a mare
She pulled up only 5 days ago
That profile must be a serious worry
Pick out the best of her runs
Then she has a very good chance
But 5 days ago she flopped badly
That clearly undermines her chance
Shortlist
BARNA VENTURE is a 9 year old
He is 3 years older than all past winners
None were as exposed as he is either
But he is well treated over hurdles
One of the few genuinely fit this year
And had excuses on his latest start
JOHNNY SUE is an 8 year old
When every past winner was aged 5-6
But that is probably worth forgiving
He is unexposed and had little racing
Just 10 runs 8 over hurdles looks ideal
One problem is the trainers career
21 Career wins but none since 2017
Another problem a drop from 2m 6f
But 2010 winner dropped from 2m 7f
JOHNNY SUE is sired by Alkaadhem
Tells me he didn't stay 2m 6f last time
Not the biggest horse nor bomb proof
But clearly has the numbers to win this
CEDAR HILL only has 4 runs
All past winners had 5 or more
Well beaten on his handicap debut
Looks like he needs another run
But there are clear positives too
He had some trouble in running
He was heavily eased once beaten
He ran in a significant trial race
Where he was only a 10/1 chance
He travelled really well for a long time
Selection
£4 Each Way CEDAR HILL 12/1-14/1
£2 Win Bet JOHNNY SUE 7/1
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Ballymore Hurdle Statistics
Another Cheltenham race today
Trying to get these done quickly
Today is the Ballymore Hurdle
Never been a good trends race
Unlikely to be one of my big races
Cheltenham Festival
Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
Race Statistics
Envoi Allen 7/4 Thyme Hill 9/1
Andy Dufresne 16/1 The Big Breakaway 16/1
Chantry House 16/1 Latest Exhibition 25/1
Elixir D'Ainay 25/1 Longhouse Poet 25/1
Fiddlerontheroof 33/1 McFabulous 50/1
Grade 1 Hurdle (2m 5f)
Horses aged 5-6 are best
The last 6 winners were 6 year olds
Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 0-62 record since 1999
Only won in 1974 and 1998
Recent winners
Had the following lifetime runs
5 6 7 6 9 4 8 4 5 3 8 4 11 9
Only the 2010 winner had under 4 runs
Horses from a Listed or Graded race
Have tended to win this race
But the 2012 and 2019 winners didn't
Past winners
Had the following lifetime runs
5 6 7 4 10 8 8 4 5 3 8
Past winners
Had the following hurdle runs
3 3 3 2 3 7 4 3 4 2 7
Past winners
Had the following runs that season
3 3 3 2 6 2 4 3 4 3 4
Horses from 2m races are fine
If the horse has under 7 career runs
They had 6 4 4 5 3 career runs
They had 3 2 3 4 2 hurdle runs
Those with more are 0-19 since 2009
Past winners
Had the following days absence
32 38 60 74 31 74 46 28 77 53 38 29
Horses aged 5
Won 3 renewals since 2006
They had 8 3 8 career runs
They had 4 2 7 hurdle runs
They had 4 3 4 runs that year
Past winners
Came from the following distances
19f 16f 21f 16f 18f 24f 20f 16f 16f 16f
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Edited by Mick on Jan 16, 2020 - 08:07 AM