- Mathematician Betting Boards
- What We Do and How to Join
- What We Do And How To Join
What We Do And How To Join
| Title | What We Do And How To Join |
| Message | The Mathematician-Betting forums are private forums for full (paying) members of the Mathematician-Betting.co.uk service. As a non member you will see next to nothing here unfortunately. Inside however is a busy active forum where members discuss racing and sports betting, providing both daily thoughts and advice and long term betting strategy thinking. It is a great place to ask questions and to raise your general knowledge of betting. The forums are a complimentary add on for memebrs of our Private Service. Read more about the Private Members Service here Horse Racing Advice To join our private service now under our No Quibble Refund Guarantee click here .. Below is a copy of an historic message as a typical sample of what members receive in their email from us each betting day. As you can see research effort and reasoning is expansive and far beyong a simple name of horse only tip. ======================================================================== Mathematician 3418 Tuesday Dec 31st 2019 5 Previews 0 Account Bet 1 Highlighted Bet Highlighted Bet Punchestown 2.50 £4 Each Way CEDAR HILL 12/1-14/1 £1 Win Bet JOHNNY SUE 7/1 £1 Win Bet BARNA VENTURE 9/1 1/4 Odds 1-2-3-4 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5 Today's Message New years day tomorrow It is a Bank Holiday as well Cheltenham has a full card What I wanted to do today Try to get back on a Bet footing Return to one of the accounts Loosen the arm up for tomorrow 5 Previews Lingfield 12.00 Uttoxeter 12.15 Punchestown 1.10 Uttoxeter 12.45 Punchestown 2.50 Realistically There is only 1 proper preview The other 4 races hardly intense No more than summarised ideas Today's Best Bet Punchestown 2.50 £4 Each Way CEDAR HILL 12/1-14/1 £1 Win Bet JOHNNY SUE 7/1 £1 Win Bet BARNA VENTURE 9/1 This is speculative More likely than not we will lose What I like about the race Nobody has a clue what wins Nobody will have done as much work Try to get 5 places Cedar Hill 5 places 14/1 Skybet VC PPower Betway 10/1 Corals But 12/1 is fine each way Even if you only get 4 places I like the bet But under no illusions This is a return to action bet In a race few will have looked at Monday's Summary Little on offer for us yesterday Ended up with just 4 previews Broke level in 3 of those races Including the days best option Lord Du Mesnil won as a saver Just a boring non combative day PROFILES & PREVIEWS Lingfield 12.00 9/4 Roundabout Magic, 4/1 Man Of The Sea 6/1 Oh So Nice, Terri Rules, 8/1 Fareeq, 9/1 Waneen 10/1 Superseded, 14/1 Starchant, 20/1 Ask The Guru 25/1 Pharoh Jake. 5f Handicap MAN OF THE SEA is a 3yo He has 127 days absence Taking on older horses 5f Handicaps Open to all aged horses Class 6 races Any time of year Both sand and grass Horses aged 3 Over 9 previous runs Absent more than 71 days Return a 0-70 record in them MAN OF THE SEA fails this 0-70 angle Given none have done this With a similar profile any time of year Feel we have to oppose him in this Race still requires luck and a guess Decided to stay with older horses Selection £7 Win Bet FAREEQ 7/1-8/1 £3 Win Bet ROUNDABOUT MAGIC 9/4-5/2 Uttoxeter 12.15 9/2 Richardofdoccombe, 11/2 All Good Things 6/1 Flanagans Field 7/1 Highland Bobby, 15/2 Tennewrow 8/1 Ted Bach 10/1 Alltimegold, Anywayyoulookatit, 14/1 Collodi 16/1 Dubai Outlaw 20/1 Kilcaragh Boy, 20/1 Ulysses 25/1 Man Of The North, 66/1 Just Spot. 2m Handicap Hurdle Strange to see a 13yo favourite Following the angles of this race All past winners had this profile Aged 5-6-7 10st 10lbs and more Running within 62 days Coming from 2m 4f or less Horses with this profile Have a 8-33 record in 8 renewals There are 3 with this profile ALL GOOD THINGS 7/1 TENNEWROW 7/1 ALLTIMEGOLD 10/1 ALL GOOD THINGS May have gone off too fast last time Going to cover all 3 options Selection £7.50 Win Bet ALL GOOD THINGS 6/1 £1.50 Win Bet TENNEWROW 7/1-8/1 £1.00 Win Bet ALLTIMEGOLD 10/1 Punchestown 1.10 5/4 Pasley, 7/1 Top Line Tommy, 8/1 Cape Islay 10/1 Gealach, Millford Sound, Oak Park, 12/1 Darkened 12/1 Yafordadoe, 14/1 Three Comets, 20/1 Oliver Hardy 25/1 Early Voice, 33/1 Annie Pender, Garrison Commander 33/1 Metal Man, Patience Patience, Weather Alert, 50/1 Jess's Corner, Lightsider, 66/1 Sevenaday 66/1 Wicklow Gale. 3yo Hurdle PASLEY has the numbers He has the connections too Should be able to take this Possible each way double bet Selection PASLEY 11/10 Win Bet Uttoxeter 12.45 6/5 Accordingtogino, 9/4 Golden Sovereign 5/1 Apple Rock, 6/1 Lies About Milan, 20/1 Bonanza Sam 25/1 A Book Of Intrigue, Little Saint, 66/1 Getaman 66/1 Robsam, 100/1 April Rising, My Foxy Lady. 2m 7f Maiden Hurdle The market suggests 4 horses Should provide the winner LIES ABOUT MILAN an unraced 8yo APPLE ROCK an unraced 5yo Clearly have plenty to prove here Against 2 experienced hurdlers If I was having a bet Golden Sovereign each way one option The split stake option also appeals £10 Stakes Betfair prices £4 Accordingtogino around 11/8-6/4 £6 Golden Sovereign around 11/4-5/2 Seems one of the sensible options Golden Sovereign becomes about 11/10 Cash back if the favourite wins Only 2 unraced horses or the rags Can cost you any money in the race Punchestown 2.50 5/1 Knockanora Lady, 6/1 Rebel Waltz, 8/1 Bread And Butter 8/1 Johnny Sue, Pretty Little Liar, 10/1 Barna Venture 12/1 Hughies Bay, 12/1 Vinabell, 14/1 De Bennette, 14/1 Glenquin Castle, Major Fawcett, 20/1 Cedar Hill, 20/1 Dubheen, Kinnagoe Boy, 25/1 Papal Present, 25/1 Shes Gold, 33/1 Arizona Flyer, Lady Of The Rea 50/1 Balaclava, 50/1 Elusive Intrusive. 2m Handicap Hurdle 10 Past renewals All 10 went to horses With a similar pattern to each other They were all aged 5 or 6 Horses aged 4 are 0-22 Horses aged 7 or more 0-58 You want a 5yo-6yo With 5-17 career starts With 5-14 hurdle starts Running within 56 days Past winners Had the following career runs 5 8 14 9 9 8 15 17 8 10 Past winners Had the following hurdle runs 5 7 11 6 6 7 14 10 6 10 Past winners Had the following runs since August 1 7 4 5 1 3 7 7 3 4 Horses aged 4 are 0-22 ARIZONA FLYER is a 4 year old Rejected with several months absence BREAD AND BUTTER is a 4yo He only has 3 lifetime starts All past winners had at least 2 more Punchestown Handicap Hurdles Any distance Any time of year Horses Aged 4 Under 9 lifetime starts Have a 0-88 record in them ARIZONA FLYER fails this BREAD AND BUTTER fails this ELUSIVE INTRUSIVE is a 4yo filly SHE'S GOLD another 4yo filly Neither horse offers encouragement REBEL WALTZ has 5 career runs But only 3 of those over hurdles Past winners had these hurdle runs 5 7 11 6 6 7 14 10 6 10 Likely to be well treated in time But not the type that has wont this GLENQUIN CASTLE is inexperienced Just 3 lifetime runs all over hurdles Not the type that has won this race Not just opposing the inexperienced I am against the exposed horses too Horses with over 17 runs are 0-28 Horses with over 14 hurdle runs 0-13 HUGHIES BAY is too exposed aged 9 Well beaten only 2 days ago as well PRETTY LITTLE LIAR has 28 career runs She is a mare with 1 run in 178 days KINNAGOE BOY is too exposed 19 runs 16 hurdles never placed in any BALACLAVA is getting exposed Very unlikely winner with few positives DE BENNETTE is a 10yo mare Absent longer than all past winners LADY OR THE REA is unexposed But an 8yo mare absent 599 days She looks far too risky to trust MAJOR FAWCETT has 154 days off Thats 3 months more than all past winners November + December Punchestown Handicap Hurdles Any distance Any class Horses under 7 years old Over 6 career starts Absent more than 69 days Have a 0-51 record in them MAJOR FAWCETT shares this profile PAPAL PRESENT is out of form From a stable also out of form as well Looks to need further than this His best form some time ago over further DUBHEEN has 5 runs all over hurdles Last years winner had a similar profile He was a year older and more convincing Looks a bit deliberate at his hurdling Just felt he needed more experience VINABELL is a 5yo mare I like her profile 10 runs 9 over hurdles Would have liked more this season Clearly needed her first run this year But coming out just 15 days later I would worry she is on the bounce KNOCKANORA LADY is a mare She pulled up only 5 days ago That profile must be a serious worry Pick out the best of her runs Then she has a very good chance But 5 days ago she flopped badly That clearly undermines her chance Shortlist BARNA VENTURE is a 9 year old He is 3 years older than all past winners None were as exposed as he is either But he is well treated over hurdles One of the few genuinely fit this year And had excuses on his latest start JOHNNY SUE is an 8 year old When every past winner was aged 5-6 But that is probably worth forgiving He is unexposed and had little racing Just 10 runs 8 over hurdles looks ideal One problem is the trainers career 21 Career wins but none since 2017 Another problem a drop from 2m 6f But 2010 winner dropped from 2m 7f JOHNNY SUE is sired by Alkaadhem Tells me he didn't stay 2m 6f last time Not the biggest horse nor bomb proof But clearly has the numbers to win this CEDAR HILL only has 4 runs All past winners had 5 or more Well beaten on his handicap debut Looks like he needs another run But there are clear positives too He had some trouble in running He was heavily eased once beaten He ran in a significant trial race Where he was only a 10/1 chance He travelled really well for a long time Selection £4 Each Way CEDAR HILL 12/1-14/1 £2 Win Bet JOHNNY SUE 7/1 FUTURE BETTING ANGLES Ballymore Hurdle Statistics Another Cheltenham race today Trying to get these done quickly Today is the Ballymore Hurdle Never been a good trends race Unlikely to be one of my big races Cheltenham Festival Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Race Statistics Envoi Allen 7/4 Thyme Hill 9/1 Andy Dufresne 16/1 The Big Breakaway 16/1 Chantry House 16/1 Latest Exhibition 25/1 Elixir D'Ainay 25/1 Longhouse Poet 25/1 Fiddlerontheroof 33/1 McFabulous 50/1 Grade 1 Hurdle (2m 5f) Horses aged 5-6 are best The last 6 winners were 6 year olds Horses aged 7 or more Have a 0-62 record since 1999 Only won in 1974 and 1998 Recent winners Had the following lifetime runs 5 6 7 6 9 4 8 4 5 3 8 4 11 9 Only the 2010 winner had under 4 runs Horses from a Listed or Graded race Have tended to win this race But the 2012 and 2019 winners didn't Past winners Had the following lifetime runs 5 6 7 4 10 8 8 4 5 3 8 Past winners Had the following hurdle runs 3 3 3 2 3 7 4 3 4 2 7 Past winners Had the following runs that season 3 3 3 2 6 2 4 3 4 3 4 Horses from 2m races are fine If the horse has under 7 career runs They had 6 4 4 5 3 career runs They had 3 2 3 4 2 hurdle runs Those with more are 0-19 since 2009 Past winners Had the following days absence 32 38 60 74 31 74 46 28 77 53 38 29 Horses aged 5 Won 3 renewals since 2006 They had 8 3 8 career runs They had 4 2 7 hurdle runs They had 4 3 4 runs that year Past winners Came from the following distances 19f 16f 21f 16f 18f 24f 20f 16f 16f 16f ******************************************************* ******************************************************* To join our private service now under our No Quibble Refund Guarantee click here |
| Ownership | Mick |
| Submission Date | Jan 16, 2020 |